
The Year of Living Dangerously. In reference to this 1982 film, a round table presented by Laval University’s École supérieure d’études internationales (ESEI) for the Winter 2025 academic year kicked off. ESEI lecturer and expert-in-residence Pierre Guimond moderated the event, which took place on Friday January 17 at the Cercle universitaire du pavillon Alphonse-Desjardins.
Some 70 professors and students were in attendance. The theme of the round table was "Perspectives 2025". Discussions focused on major issues and events likely to attract global attention in the coming year.
Pierre Guimond posed three questions to the panelists: "What can we expect in 2025? What do we have to fear? What can we do?"
The first to jump into the fray was Damian Raess , a professor at ESEI. The elephant in the room is obviously Donald Trump and his return to the White House," he explained at the outset. He may be setting an example. We’ve heard him talk about Greenland, the Panama Canal, including the possibility of annexing Canada since these territories are of great importance to the American economy."
The professor recalled that borders have long been fixed. They may be becoming more fluid again," he continued. Territorial integrity is being called into question. We know that when international law is not respected, the law of the strongest reigns. I think this is an important development in international relations."
In his view, President Trump’s protectionist agenda will be one to watch. Is the escalation of the trade war going to happen? he asked. I think so," he replied. It’s a campaign promise. He’s announced tariffs, not only on U.S. adversaries like China, but also on America’s closest allies, Canada in particular, which is going to take 25% right in the face."
The populist far right on the brink of power
In Austria, Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right populist Freedom Party, is set to become the next chancellor and leader of a coalition government. In so doing, Austria will become the first European country since the end of the Second World War to be led by a far-right nationalist party.According to Damian Raess, there is a causal link between the rise of protectionism and the rise of right-wing extremist populist parties.
"Firstly," he said, "we must recognize that the backlash against deglobalization dates not only from the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union in 2020, nor from Donald Trump’s election to a first term in office in 2018, but that these protectionist tendencies had been brewing since at least the 1990s."
Twenty years ago," recalls Professor Raess, "they were already on the increase. In France in 2002, for example, Jean-Marie Le Pen made it through to the second round of the presidential election. Today, populist parties are on the doorstep of power. They govern, for example in the Netherlands with a coalition. And the French government is currently at the mercy of the far-right Rassemblement National party.

Has globalization gone too far? Are the benefits of globalization just wishful thinking? To these two questions, the professor answered "Yes, probably" and "Yes, partly".
"Basically," he summed up, "I’m pretty pessimistic about an end to globalization, these discontents and the continued rise of right-wing populist forces, which I think will continue to ride their electoral success."
Emerging countries, a growth group
During the question period, Damian Raess emphasized that emerging countries represent a challenge to the Western economic order as it has existed since the end of the Second World War. An initial rebalancing of power has taken place with China’s spectacular growth over the past three decades.In his view, the situation of emerging countries today is more complex. In 2024," he explained, "five countries have joined the BRICS group, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. There is more heterogeneity with the arrival of Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran and Saudi Arabia are in direct competition in the Middle East. And there is strong competition between India and China. This lack of cohesion somehow limits the power and ability to rebalance the global economy and its direction."
Can the countries of the "Global South" turn away from the USA? If so, with what consequences?
In response to these questions, Professor Raess took as an example the development aid competition taking place in Africa between the West and the Chinese.
"The new Chinese donor is appreciated by African countries to the point where some of these countries are turning away from their previous donors," he said. Part of this attraction has to do with the Chinese approach. The Western approach distributes its grants subject to certain conditions relating to democratic principles, human rights and the like. We’re going to insist on good governance. We try to influence domestic policies. The Chinese, on the other hand, propose aid that respects the sovereignty of states and is based on equality and mutual economic benefits."
However, a study carried out by the professor on these issues shows that China’s approach is not very different from that of the West.
"The Chinese have a more subtle way of demanding a quid pro quo from the countries receiving their aid," he maintained. We looked at the voting behavior of these countries at the UN General Assembly. We can see that the biggest recipients are going to realign their foreign policy and voting patterns with Chinese preferences on the important objects of their foreign policy."
The round table also featured Professor Adèle Garnier, from the Department of Geography, and Professor Hang Zhou, from the Department of Political Science. The former addressed the climate crisis and its influence on the migration flows of the major powers. The second spoke about the economic aspect of Chinese financing of major infrastructure projects in Africa.